Who Should Take the Free Throw?

When the score is really close, and time is running out, coaches need to decide which player has the best chance of making a shot that will win the game. If you were the coach, how would you decide who should take the game-winning shot?

Imagine that your team trails by 1 point with less than 10 seconds left in the game. The tallest player on the other team—not wanting your team to score an easy basket to win—positions himself in the lane to prevent an easy lay-up. But he stays there too long without guarding anyone, and he is called for a violation of the Defensive 3-Second Rule.

As a result, a technical foul is called, and your team is awarded a technical free throw. You get to decide who will take it. Who will you pick?

Pick a team from either league, and analyze the players' free throw shooting data. Which player has the best chance of making the free throw? How will you use the data to decide which player to choose? Rank the players on your team from best to worst, and explain how you arrived at your ranking.

Who Would You Choose?

Which player would you choose to shoot the technical free throw? How did you decide? Explain your method using precise mathematical language.